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Minggu, 18 Agustus 2019

This former Googler is tired of the crazy, Bay Area housing prices - Business Insider

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Adam Singer giving a keynote at MozCon, a digital marketing conference, in Seattle.Adam Singer

Former Google marketing manager, Adam Singer, says after living in the Bay Area for over a decade, he's had enough of the astronomical home prices and the city not making strides to improve living conditions.
In a recent tweetstorm, Singer aired his hang-ups with San Francisco and announced that after a trip to Austin, he and his wife purchased land and would be moving to the Texas state capital.
"None of my San Francisco or Bay Area friends were surprised," Singer told Business Insider of his relocation. "They're like, 'It's totally reasonable to leave.' No one's fighting to keep me here."
A recent report by the real estate company Compass found that to afford a median-priced home in the San Francisco Bay Area, a person would need to earn more than $340,000 per year.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

Adam Singer is tired of San Francisco.

The former Google marketing manager says after living in the Bay Area for over a decade, he's had enough of the astronomical home prices and the city not making progress to improve living conditions.

In a tweetstorm last Wednesday, Singer aired his hang-ups with San Francisco and announced that after a trip to Austin, he and his wife (and their rescue dog, Dash the Dingo) would be moving to the Texas capital, which is increasingly known for its hot startup scene as much as it's bar-b-que.

Might as well just share while here & excited (got to meet so many creative, energizing people). Pulled trigger & purchased land today. Done deal. Will be in SF awhile longer while they build our house my wife is designing. Plenty of time to say goodbye. New adventures soon!
— Adam Singer (@AdamSinger) August 15, 2019

"So Austin suburbs are beautiful. Houses really reasonably priced. Easy ride to the city. Great food and music scene nearby. What's the catch," Singer tweeted. "For same price of your SF rental you can afford basically as much house as you want here. Crazy."

Singer says he recently purchased land in Austin and will be working with a local design center on the construction of his home.

With housing prices in the San Francisco Bay Area continuing to reach record highs, many, like Singer, are questioning whether it's worth it to live in the region at all. A recent study found that 44% of Bay Area residents polled said they're likely to leave within the next few years. High housing prices were the top reason residents were feeling the pressure to move.

Another report by the real estate company Compass found just how costly it can be to buy a home in the San Francisco Bay Area. Including mortgage payments, taxes, and insurance, owning a median-priced home in the Bay Area runs around $8,500 per month. And in order to afford that kind of monthly expense, a person would need to earn more than $340,000 per year, the report said.

The former Googler told Business Insider in an interview this week that after two years of househunting across the Bay Area, seeing the type of homes they could actually afford became all too frustrating.

"I'm not paying two million dollars to live in some [baby] boomer's starter home next to a strip mall," Singer said, in reference to certain houses he looked at south of San Francisco, near San Jose.

In Austin, Singer says he was able to find "gorgeous" homes for under a half-million dollars.

Same price SF/Austin (viewed this one but didn't buy). Sure live in the filing cabinet where you hear neighbors play who let the dogs out at 4am or have the custom built bespoke castle with same if not more professional opportunity closeby + prop values have insane room to run. pic.twitter.com/RMGI3iwXyx
— Adam Singer (@AdamSinger) August 15, 2019

A "NIMBY" state

The former Googler puts much of the blame of San Francisco's housing prices on city officials who he says don't want to increase the number of condos and apartments in the area. Other cities, like Austin and Seattle, Singer says, have been able to keep housing prices from reaching untouchable rates because they've been willing to develop.

"People think supply and demand economics don't exist as soon as you get into the Bay Area," Singer said. "It's not a thing here."

Singer also points the finger at long-time San Francisco residents who bought their homes years before prices spiked. Those owners are cashing on the demand from renters, Singer says, and thus have little incentive to advocate for the city to increase its supply of homes.

"For the people who already own here, I think they quietly don't give a f—-," Singer said. "They have theirs. Whether they want to admit it or not, this is a NIMBY state. What they will accomplish — they will squeeze out the middle of San Francisco." (NIMBY is an acronym for "not in my backyard," often used to describe opposition to development in a particular area.")

On top of the extravagant housing costs, the Bay Area faces major problems like how to best support its homeless population and provide adequate transportation options for residents, Singer says. He also sees much of what initially appealed to him about San Francisco — like local cafes and eateries — being displaced trendy restaurants with "$500 prix fixe menus."

Good weather and FOMO

So why are some San Franciscans still choosing to stick around?

Besides the weather, Singer says he thinks some people, especially those in tech, stay in the Bay Area because of FOMO, or fear of missing out. The thought, he says, is that if you're not in San Francisco, you won't have the chance to work for top tech companies like Uber or Pinterest or Google.

That might be true for those just starting their careers, said Singer, who now works as a digital marketing lead at the biotech company Invitae. But for someone who has worked at a company for at least a couple years and has proven to be a "linchpin" for their teams, Singer says it's unlikely that a company wouldn't let that person work remotely.

"The unwritten rule at any given mega-corp is if you're a talented individual contributor, they will let you work from whereever you want," Singer said. "It is not posted on their website. They will not admit that to you ever. But I've never seen that not be true at any big company."

As for reaction to his Austin relocation, Singer tells us that none of his friends or family were all to shocked.

"The biggest reaction is, 'Why did you stay in San Francisco so long?' from all my non-San Francisco friends," Singer said. "None of my San Francisco or Bay Area friends were surprised. They're like, 'It's totally reasonable to leave.' No one's fighting to keep me here."

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2019-08-18 12:00:37Z
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Sabtu, 17 Agustus 2019

Stock market gyrates as the economic picture gets blurred - The Associated Press

You’re not the only one confused about where the economy is headed. Just look at the stock market, where perplexed investors have been sending stocks on a wild ride in August.

And there could be plenty more where that came from. Two notoriously volatile months for stocks lie just ahead.

Stocks around the world jumped Friday to cap another tumultuous week. Investors have been frantically trying to rejigger their predictions about whether President Donald Trump’s trade war and slowing economies around the world will drag the United States into a recession. In the U.S., the result was a week where the Dow Jones Industrial Average had four days where it rose or fell by more than 300 points — with an 800-point drop thrown into the mix.

On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 1.4%. The Dow climbed 1.2% and the Nasdaq picked up 1.7%. But each index still finished with a third-straight weekly decline.

Stocks, bonds and other investments heaved up and down throughout the week, with worries hitting a crescendo on Wednesday when a fairly reliable warning signal of recession flipped on in the U.S. Treasury market.

Friday marked the seventh time in the last 10 days that the S&P 500 swung by at least 1%, something that hasn’t happened since the end of 2018, the last time investors were getting worried about a possible recession. At that time, they were concerned about rising interest rates, along with the trade war.

Don’t expect the volatility to go away anytime soon, analysts say. No one knows when Trump’s trade war will find a resolution, nor whether all the uncertainty it’s created will push enough businesses and shoppers to hold off on spending and cause a recession. Some investors are digging in for trade tensions to last through the 2020 election.

“We’re also heading into a tough season for the market,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “September and October tend to be the most volatile of the year for markets. We’ve been talking to investors for that reason to look for areas to prune risk within a portfolio.”

The S&P 500 has lost an average of 1.1% in September over the last 20 years, making it the worst-performing month of the year. October’s track record is better, but it includes the worst monthly performance in that stretch, a nearly 17% drop in 2008.

But Roland and other professional investors also caution that this kind of turmoil is actually normal for the market, when looking at it from a very long-term point of view. The U.S. stock market historically has had such bursts of tightly packed volatile days, interspersed between longer periods of calm. Since early 2009, whenever the S&P 500 has had a drop of 3% in a day, it either preceded or followed another such drop within a month 70% of the time.

“What’s been abnormal is the super-low volatility” that investors have been enjoying for much of this bull market, which began in 2009, said Brian Yacktman, portfolio manager of the YCG Enhanced fund.

He sees the volatility as an opportunity to buy stocks at cheaper prices, and he’s recently been partial to bank stocks, which have been hammered on worries that lower interest rates will hurt their profits.

“When you have volatility like this, you’re actually buying the market on sale,” said Rob Scheinerman, CEO of AIG Retirement Services. “That’s a great thing.”

Technology companies and banks did the most to drive Friday’s broad rally as investors regained some appetite for riskier holdings. Utilities, which have been one of the safer havens for investors this month, lagged the market.

The S&P 500 rose 41.08 points, or 1.4%, to 2,888.68. The Dow, which had an 800-point drop earlier in the week, added 306.62 points, or 1.2%, to 25,886.01. The Nasdaq climbed 129.38 points, or 1.7%, to 7,895.99.

Investors favored smaller company stocks, which pushed up the Russell 2000. The index rose 31.99 points, or 2.2%, to 1,493.64.

Even with the latest bout of turbulent trading, the S&P 500 is still having a good year. The broad market index is up 15.2% for 2019. Similarly, the Nasdaq is still up 19% for the year.

Long-term bond yields also climbed Friday. The yield on 10-year Treasury rose to 1.56% from 1.52% late Thursday.

The bounce for yields followed a weeklong slide that included a sharp drop on Wednesday that rang yet another alarm bell for the economy. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped below the yield on the two-year Treasury, a rare occurrence and one that has historically suggested a recession may be a year or two away.

Investors are hoping that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in order to shore up economic growth. The central bank lowered interest rates by a quarter-point at its last meeting. It was the first time it lowered rates in a decade.

Benchmark crude oil rose 40 cents to settle at $54.87 a barrel. Brent crude oil, the international standard, rose 41 cents to close at $58.64 a barrel. Wholesale gasoline rose 2 cents to $1.66 per gallon. Heating oil was unchanged at $1.81 per gallon. Natural gas fell 3 cents to $2.20 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Gold fell $7.10 to $1,512.50 per ounce, silver fell 9 cents to $17.10 per ounce and copper was unchanged at $2.59 per pound.

The dollar rose to 106.29 Japanese yen from 106.11 yen on Thursday. The euro weakened to $1.1093 from $1.1107.

___

AP Business Writer Damian J. Troise contributed.

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2019-08-17 15:10:21Z
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GE stock is fast recovering, but short seller investigator Harry Markopolos got his digs in - CNBC

Fraud finder Harry Markopolos took GE stock down more than 11% in one day with a dizzying array of charts and numbers, but also some choice words accusing analysts, ratings agencies and GE's management of Enron-era behaviors.

A day later, GE stock rebounded nearly 10% on Friday after GE CEO Larry Culp invested $2 million on the dip and analysts came to GE's rescue, mostly calling Markopolos' claims inaccurate or based on old news that was already baked into GE's stock price.

Markopolis, known for discovering Bernie Madoff's scheme, accused GE of using fake revenues and earnings, hidden debts and losses, unreadable financial statements, misleading disclosures and other accounting tricks to perpetrate a $38 billion fraud. Markopolos also said he wrote his report for an unnamed hedge fund with a short position on GE stock. The market's reaction on Friday was decidedly dismissive.

Markopolos' website, gefraud.com, fashioned GE's logo to look similar to Enron's. "GE utilizes many of the same accounting tricks as Enron did, so much so that we've taken to calling this the 'GEnron' case," he wrote in his report.

Markopolos' website, gefraud.com, *fashioned GE's logo to look similar to Enron's.*

Source: Getfraud.com

He extended his accusations to actuaries, auditors and analysts who he claims overlooked billions in liabilities in GE's long-term care insurance business. Here's a selection of his barbs:

"GE was able to hide its LTC liabilities for a long, long time because its actuaries are about as independent at KPMG, GE's auditor for the past 110 years, and the ratings agencies. All are getting paid by GE, so of course they'll never question GE's LTC reserves."

"The analyst community fell for GE's accounting tricks hook, line and sinker."

"GE might have survived LTC if it had a competent CEO. Unfortunately, GE's CEO was Jeff 'Two-Jet' Immelt, an executive who excelled at overpaying for value-destroying purchase such as Alstom and Baker Hughes just in time for cyclical downturns."

"Our final three questions are for KPMG, GE's auditors for the past 110 years dating back to 1909: 1) What did you know? 2) When did you know it? And 3) Where's your 'going concern' opinion?"

"I want to express my sympathy to the one million people who count on GE for either salaries, healthcare or pensions. Make no mistake, GE's current and past employees are victims here as are GE's lenders, vendors and customers, all of whom have to deal with the aftermath of an accounting fraud. The only winners here are GE's fat cat executives who enriched themselves with undeserved bonuses as they drove this proud beacon of American business into the ground."

Markopolos' rhetoric leavened a report heavy on complex accounting issues. But it doesn't appear to be making him any allies in his quest to expose. Nick Heymann, co-group head of global industrial infrastructure at the William Blair financial services firm, accused him of simply throwing a Molotov cocktail.

"You got the stock on sale yesterday for absolutely no basis," Heymann told CNBC on Friday

Markopolos set a high bar for his work predicting that GE will file bankruptcy. "Worldcom and Enron lasted about 4 months," Markopolos said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Thursday. "We'll see how GE does."

Still unknown is the hedge fund that paid Markopolos to write his report and when it will cash out its short position. But for now, Markopolos got his digs in and he may already be counting his profits.

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2019-08-17 12:18:29Z
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Jumat, 16 Agustus 2019

Madoff whistleblower says GE is 'one recession away from Chapter 11' - CNN

"GE is one recession away from Chapter 11. Their balance sheet is in tatters," Markopolos told Julia Chatterley on CNNi's "First Move" show Friday.

"We'll see how solvent they are at year end, and we'll see if they make it into 2020," he added.

GE shares plunged more than 11% Thursday, their worst drop since 2008, but rebounded Friday along with the broader market, surging nearly 10%. GE's stock is up more than 20% so far in 2019.

The explosive comments from Markopolos follow the release of a 175-page whistleblower report in which he and his team of investigators accused GE of nearly $40 billion in accounting fraud tied to its insurance business, as well as issues with how it accounts for its stake in oil services firm Baker Hughes (BHGE).

In the report, Markopolos claims that GE (GE) is a bigger fraud than Enron and WorldCom, which both went bankrupt following accounting scandals in the early 2000s.

Accounting investigator Harry Markopolos told CNNi's Julia Chatterley Friday that he thinks GE could go bankrupt if there is a recession.

The company has shot back, saying Thursday the Markopolos claims are "meritless" and disputing his allegations of a looming cash crunch. "GE continues to maintain a strong liquidity position, committed credit lines, and several executable options to monetize assets."

The company also said it "expects to make significant progress" towards reducing its debt by the end of 2020.

As of June 30, GE had nearly $106 billion in debt on its balance sheet-- including liabilities from GE Capital -- and just $71 billion in cash.

Markopolos rose to fame as a whistleblower by correctly predicting that Bernard Madoff's money management firm was a fraud years before it collapsed in 2008.

GE isn't the only one pushing back on his most recent claims. Another firm that specializes in exposing accounting problems, Citron Research, took issue with the Markopolos findings too. The company said in a tweet that the report "was the worst that activist short selling has to offer. Aggressive accounting is not fraud." Citron added that the Markopolos report was "disingenuous all the way through."

And in a separate statement sent to CNN Business Friday, CEO Larry Culp said "GE will always take any allegation of financial misconduct seriously. But this is market manipulation -- pure and simple."

"Mr. Markopolos's report contains false statements of fact, and these claims could have been corrected if he had checked them with GE before publishing the report," he added.

Culp is putting his money where his mouth is. He bought $2 million of GE stock on Thursday, as did several other GE insiders, as a show of confidence in the company's future.

GE has been busy selling assets over the past few years to pay down debt and position itself as a leaner firm. Under the leadership of previous CEOs Jack Welch and Jeffrey Immelt, GE became too bloated. The company, which used to reliably generate solid earnings growth, started to miss Wall Street's forecasts -- causing its stock to plunge.

On Friday Markopolos told Chatterley that he continues to worry about GE's insurance business, adding that the company waited until the last minute to take writedowns.

He noted that other insurance companies, such as Prudential (PRU) and Unum (UNM), have avoided similar problems by adding proper reserves to account for potential losses.

Markopolos also dismissed claims by GE that he will profit~~ing~~ from the fall in the company's stock price because he is working with a firm that is shorting GE stock -- betting that the price will go down so it can make money off of the decline.

He would not name the investment firm, saying simply that he's a "seeker of the truth."

"If I see accounting fraud, I go after it," he said.

Markopolos added that he's had "ongoing discussions" with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Justice about their investigations into GE's accounting.

GE has said in regulatory filings and during earnings conference calls with analysts that is cooperating with both the SEC and DOJ. The SEC declined to comment about the status of its GE probe. The DOJ was not immediately available for comment.

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2019-08-16 20:19:00Z
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GE accounting fraud accuser says company is 'one recession away from Chapter 11' - CNN

"GE is one recession away from Chapter 11. Their balance sheet is in tatters," Markopolos told Julia Chatterley on CNNi's "First Move" show Friday.

"We'll see how solvent they are at year end, and we'll see if they make it into 2020," he added.

GE shares plunged more than 11% Thursday, their worst drop since 2008, but rebounded Friday along with the broader market, surging nearly 9%. GE's stock is up 17% so far in 2019.