Kamis, 15 Agustus 2019

A global recession may be coming a lot sooner than anyone thought - CNN

Perspectives Sven Henrich
Call it a major hangover. The reversal in tariffs did not come from a position of strength. It came as a result of global economic reality sinking in and crushing US markets.
Turns out trade wars are not easy to win and the global growth picture is not looking good. Last week, the UK announced negative GDP growth for the past quarter. This week, it's Germany announcing shrinking GDP with its 10-year bond hitting a record negative 0.62% yield. Then there's Europe seeing negative industrial production, and China announcing its lowest industrial production growth in 17 years.
The collapse in global bond yields has been a theme since October of last year, with 10-year US Treasury bonds dropping to 1.6% from their October 2018 high of 3.23%. Now that the two-year/10-year Treasury yield curve has inverted, the recession alarm bells are ringing. Why? Because every single recession in the past 45 years has seen a yield curve inversion preceding it.
History suggests that on average a recession begins 22 months after a yield curve inversion. It's not until about 18 months after an inversion that the stock market turns negative.
Yet Bank of America Merril Lynch numbers indicate that we have less time. For the 10 yield curve inversions since 1956, the S&P 500 peaked within approximately three months of the inversion six times. Following the other four, the S&P 500 took 11 to 22 months to peak.
Twenty-two months of growth vs. three months? That's quite a big gap.
Both of these historical studies suggest there is room for markets to make new highs in the next few months. In fact, one can imagine several scenarios on how these new highs could come about.
Central banks could embark on emergency interest rate cuts and reintroduce quantitative easing programs to force more cash into equities again. A sudden end to a trade war, with an attempt to save face by both sides, could certainly spark a sustained global relief rally that may end up averting or delaying a recession.
Indeed, the Trump administration, eager to avoid a recession ahead of the 2020 election, may find itself in a position to end the trade war sooner rather than later. But the administration is still faced with several historic miscalculations of its own making. The massive tax cuts of 2017 have produced little in the form of growth other than a temporary sugar high. Growth is slowing. Long gone are the promises of 4% GDP growth. In fact, growth is looking to drop below 2% in lieu of a trade deal. The only thing that has been growing are deficits, which are on pace to hit $1 trillion this year already.
All of these are signs that the risk of a global recession is a clear and present danger.
This is a very tricky environment for investors to navigate through. History suggests there is time to take advantage of future rallies to prepare for the next recession and raise cash before a major market downturn does unfold. But global economic data suggests a global recession may come a lot sooner than anyone anticipated.
And this reveals an uncomfortable truth: We've never faced a recession with so much debt and so little Fed ammunition available and with negative rates still in effect in many countries. There's no playbook for this. Historic data may be of little predictive use.
A sudden end to the trade deal may be imperative — without it we don't have much time before the next recession begins.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/15/perspectives/global-recession-bond-yield-inversion/index.html

2019-08-15 14:28:00Z
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GE Is New Target of Madoff Whistleblower - The Wall Street Journal

Harry Markopolos, who warned securities regulators about the Madoff investment scheme, is taking issue with how GE accounts for its long-term-care insurance holdings and for its Baker Hughes oil and gas business. Photo: Michael Bucher/The Wall Street Journal

An accounting expert who raised red flags about Bernie Madoff ’s Ponzi scheme has a new target: General Electric Co. GE -7.14%

In a research report posted online Thursday, Harry Markopolos alleges the struggling conglomerate has masked the depths of its problems, resulting in inaccurate and fraudulent financial filings with regulators. The report, which numbers more than 170 pages and was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, is a mixture of detailed financial analysis and sweeping claims.

Mr. Markopolos said, in an interview ahead of the report’s release, his group found GE’s insurance unit will need to bolster its reserves by $18.5 billion in cash and faulted the way the company is accounting for its oil-and-gas business. All told, he said, the accounting problems amount to $38 billion, or 40% of the conglomerate’s market value.

“GE stands behind its financials. We operate to the highest level of integrity in our financial reporting and we have clearly laid out our financial obligations in great detail,” a GE spokeswoman said in an email before the report was published. “While we can’t comment on the detailed content of a report that we haven’t seen, the allegations we have heard are entirely false and misleading.”

Mr. Markopolos said he and his colleagues are working with an undisclosed hedge fund, which is betting GE’s share price will decline. Mr. Markopolos’s group gave the investor access to the research prior to publication and will receive a portion of any trading proceeds. He declined to identify the hedge fund. The group also is sharing its findings with securities regulators, hoping to collect a cash reward as part of a whistleblower program, Mr. Markopolos said.

The group’s research indicates that GE is short on working capital—a key measure of liquidity—and that its cash situation is far worse than disclosed in its regulatory filings.

GE said it hasn’t been contacted by Mr. Markopolos and that the group’s report was produced to help short sellers profit by creating volatility in GE’s shares. “We will not be distracted by this type of meritless, misguided and self-serving speculation and neither should anyone in the investor community,” the GE spokeswoman said.

The Boston-based investor-turned-investigator warned the Securities and Exchange Commission about the Madoff investment scheme years before it became public, but was ignored. In a more recent campaign, Mr. Markopolos helped expose a foreign-currency trading scandal at several banks. He has helped spawn a cash-for-tips whistleblower industry.

GE is already under investigation by the SEC and Justice Department for potential accounting issues that have come to light in the past two years related to its insurance holdings and problems in its power division. The company has denied accounting fraud in response to lawsuits and said it is cooperating with investigators. GE has said it is considering switching auditors after using KPMG LLP for more than a century.

The Markopolos group said it plans to present its report to the SEC and to meet with federal prosecutors and investigators about its findings. In the report, the group says some information will be given exclusively to law enforcement.

An SEC spokesman declined to comment.

After two difficult years, GE has shown signs of stability in its business this year and recently nudged higher its financial guidance for the first time in years. From the perspective of an investor betting against the share price, much of the decline in GE stock has already happened. Shares are close to $9, where they have spent much of 2019. The share price was above $30 at the beginning of 2017 and near $7 at the end of 2018.

The Markopolos group includes John McPherson, co-founder of MMS Advisors, forensic accountants specializing in the insurance industry. The group worked for seven months to analyze GE’s accounting.

Mr. Markopolos said he is going public with the report now because the group just finished its work. It had been working on another insurance case when GE’s insurance problems caught its eye, he said.

The group claims GE’s long-term-care insurance holdings are a bigger liability than the company is letting on. The report estimates GE will need to boost its insurance reserves by $18.5 billion in cash and take a $10.5 billion charge because of an accounting change required by 2021.

Those figures are on top of a $15 billion reserve boost already taken by GE over seven years to cover its exposure to long-term care policies, which cover expenses like nursing homes and assisted living. The policies have proved to be a problem for many insurers. The companies drastically underestimated the number of future claims and how long people would draw on the coverage before dying. 

Mr. McPherson said the group found issues with GE’s long-term care insurance by reviewing statutory insurance filings, financial documents required by state regulators that require different accounting than corporate financial statements.

The group went back a decade and, because GE’s long-term care business involved reinsuring policies issued by other insurers, it also examined the underlying filings for those other insurers.

The report claims that policy premiums paid to GE are low compared with what rivals typically receive and that GE isn’t receiving any premiums at all on more than a quarter of policies, because those contracts are considered paid in full. The group says that, even after the $15 billion boost, GE’s reserves are well below what would be expected for such a troubled group of policies.

GE in the early years front-loaded gains from the long-term-care business by collecting premiums when policyholders were young, the group claims, but failed to properly record reserves as the covered population aged and claims ran at higher levels than originally expected.

In March, GE executives hosted a conference call to assure investors they had a handle on the insurance business. GE said that it planned to push to raise policy premiums and shift investments to boost returns and that it had adequate reserves to cover expected claims. “We believe our assumptions are appropriate in the aggregate,” Tim Kneeland, head of the insurance unit, said at the time.

The Markopolos group also alleges that GE’s ownership of oil-and-gas business Baker Hughes isn’t being properly accounted for and that the company should have booked $9.6 billion of losses on the investment. Last year GE recorded a $2.2 billion loss on the sale of part of its Baker Hughes stake, reducing its ownership from 62.5% to 50.2%.

In SEC filings, GE has disclosed that selling below 50% will trigger it to stop reporting Baker Hughes’s financial results as part of its own and record its loss on the rest of its investment. GE said its paper loss on the remaining investment was about $7.4 billion as of July 24, according to the company’s 10-Q report.

Mr. Markopolos said that the Baker Hughes stake is now “strictly an investment” and that GE as of 2018 has been improperly holding back from recording the loss, thus inflating its financial results. GE should be simply recording the value of its investment in the company, Mr. Markopolos said, a change he said could strain GE debt agreements.

GE responds that, as a majority shareholder of Baker Hughes it is required to report consolidated results for Baker Hughes, under generally accepted accounting principles. GE says it is providing more transparent reporting by including Baker Hughes’s revenues and costs and assets and liabilities, rather than just giving a value for the investment.

Share Your Thoughts

What questions should authorities be asking of General Electric? Join the conversation below.

Write to Thomas Gryta at thomas.gryta@wsj.com and Mark Maremont at mark.maremont@wsj.com

Copyright ©2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/ge-is-new-target-of-madoff-whistleblower-11565866617

2019-08-15 13:24:00Z
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Trump economy nearing a recession? - MSNBC

Wall Street took a battering Wednesday, suffering its worst day so far in 2019, the sharpest indication yet of an approaching recession. With his re-election campaign on the line, what levers does President Trump have to keep the U.S. economy healthy? And was the "great Trump economy" a lie in the first place?

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https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/trump-economy-nearing-a-recession-66161221616

2019-08-15 11:32:35Z
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Markets in turmoil amid recession fears - CBS This Morning

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcdFzHIc2Z4

2019-08-15 11:24:28Z
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Walmart raises earnings forecast for year after jump in quarterly sales - Investing.com

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Walmart signs are displayed inside a Walmart store in Mexico City © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Walmart signs are displayed inside a Walmart store in Mexico City

By Nandita Bose

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retailer Walmart Inc (N:) reported an estimate-beating jump in second-quarter U.S. comparable sales on Thursday as shoppers boosted purchases at its stores and websites, sending its shares up 5% in premarket trading.

Walmart raised its earnings expectations for the year after recording 20 quarters, or five straight years, of U.S. growth, unmatched by any other retailer.

The prices of some items sold by the retailer have climbed due to tariffs on Chinese imports, but the company is managing that pressure by negotiating with suppliers and sourcing from alternate supply bases, Chief Financial Officer Brett Biggs told Reuters in an interview.

U.S. President Donald Trump raised tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports to 25% from 10% earlier this year, a move that has begun pushing up prices of thousands of products including clothing, furniture and electronics.

Earlier this week, Trump backed off his Sept. 1 deadline for imposing 10% tariffs on remaining Chinese imports, delaying duties on cellphones, laptops and other consumer goods, to shield U.S. holiday sales from their impact.

Sales at U.S. stores open at least a year rose 2.8%, excluding fuel, in the quarter ended July 31. Analysts estimated growth of 2.07%, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Adjusted earnings per share increased to $1.27 per share, beating expectations of $1.22 per share.

The retailer raised its forecast for adjusted earnings-per-share to a "slight decrease to slight increase," from a "decline by a low single-digit percentage range." That forecast includes the impact from the acquisition of Indian e-commerce firm Flipkart.

Online sales surged 37%, in line with the previous quarter's increase and higher than the company's expectation of 35%.

Total revenue was up 1.8% at $130.4 billion, beating analysts' estimates for $130.1 billion.

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https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/walmart-raises-earnings-forecast-for-year-after-jump-in-quarterly-sales-1955961

2019-08-15 11:16:00Z
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Walmart beats sales expectations, boosts guidance - Yahoo Finance

A Walmart megastore (Photo by Francis Dean/Corbis via Getty Images)

Walmart (WMT) beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines for its second quarter. The world’s largest retailer also boosted its fiscal 2020 adjusted EPS and same-store sales forecast. Walmart shares soared 6% in pre-market trade on the results.

Here are the numbers for Walmart’s second quarter, compared to Bloomberg-compiled estimates:

  • Revenue: $130.4 billion vs. $130.08 billion expected

  • Adj. earnings per share: $1.27 vs. $1.22 expected

  • Same-store sales: +2.8% vs. +2.5% expected

Walmart now predicts that U.S. same-store sales growth will be at the high end of its previously guided range between 2.5%-3%. Adjusted EPS is now expected to either increase or decrease slightly this year. Walmart was previously anticipating a low single-digit decline including the impact of its Flipkart transaction.

Sam’s Club same-store sales grew 1.2% during the second quarter, better than analyst expectations for 0.6% growth.

Online sales have been a bright spot for Walmart, as the company continues to bet on the e-commerce space. In the second quarter, e-commerce sales grew 37% with strong growth in grocery. Sam’s Club’s online sales grew 35%.

At the end of the second quarter, Walmart had more than 2,700 grocery pick-up locations and more than 1,100 delivery locations in the U.S. Walmart also reported that its NextDay delivery service from Walmart.com now covers about 75% of the U.S. population.

The world’s largest retailer has recently been thrust into the spotlight as concerns about looming tariffs continue to blanket the retail industry.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) office released two lists of Chinese imports. One list outlined the goods that would be hit with a 10% tariff effective September 1, and another list of goods that would see a 10% tariff on December 15. Investors will be paying close attention to any additional commentary from management on how the tariffs could impact Walmart’s business going forward. While a bulk of Walmart’s goods are sourced in the U.S., the retailer does bring in about a third of its products internationally.

Walmart CFO Brett Biggs addressed the tariff concerns in Walmart’s management commentary.

“We’re continuing to monitor the ongoing tariff discussions and are hopeful that an overarching long-term agreement can be reached. Our merchants continue to execute appropriate mitigation strategies as our goal 17 is to be the low-price leader,” Biggs said. “Over the past several months, the team has been able to thoughtfully manage pricing and margins with both our customers and shareholders in mind. We are currently reviewing the proposed List 4 tariff information that was published by the USTR on Tuesday. Our updated guidance reflects our current understanding of the timing of tariff implementation on various categories as List 4 affects a larger part of our assortment than the prior tariffs.”

Walmart is also under pressure from the public about its gun sales. Unions and organizations are planning rallies across the the country this weekend to stop sales of firearms in Walmart stores.

At the beginning of his prepared statement, CEO Doug McMillon immediately addressed the two recent fatal tragedies that took place at Walmart stores. “Our hearts continue to be with our associates in El Paso and Southaven and we are focused on the safety of our associates and customers in all our stores and clubs. Those tragic and painful events will be with us forever, and our hearts go out to the families that were impacted,” McMillion said.

McMillon then went on to address the steps that Walmart has already taken to help create safer communities. Walmart estimated that it represents about 2% of the current market for firearms, which placed it outside of the top three sellers in the industry. The retailer also estimated that it has about 20% of the market share in ammunition.

This post is developing. Please check back for updates.

Heidi Chung is a reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @heidi_chung.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-earnings-q2-2020-110548616.html

2019-08-15 11:05:00Z
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US Treasury yields mixed after 30-year bond falls to historic low - CNBC

U.S. Government bond prices traded mixed on Thursday as fears of a global recession drove investors to the perceived safety of government debt.

U.S. Markets Overview: Treasurys chart

At around 03:10 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was higher at around 1.5894%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was lower at around 2.0132%.

The 30-year Treasury bond hit a record low of 1.991% overnight, breaching the 2% threshold for the first time in its history, before paring some of its losses.

The historic drop in long-term U.S. bond yields comes less than 24 hours after the closely-watched 10-year Treasury note and the 2-year inverted. The inversion of this key part of the yield curve has previously been a reliable indicator of economic recessions.

The stock market took a huge hit in the previous session, with the Dow plunging 800 points in its fourth-largest point drop ever to a two-month low. The sell-off exacerbated an extensive flight-to-safety into government securities.

At times of market turbulence, investors tend to flee to assets expected to either retain or increase in value — such as gold, the Japanese yen and government bonds. These safe-haven assets are typically sought to limit one's exposure to losses in the event of a sharp market downturn.

Recession fears

It comes at a time when market participants are worried about a protracted U.S.-China trade war, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over Brexit. Economic data in China and Germany this week also suggested a faltering global economy.

Stateside, investors are likely to closely monitor U.S. retail sales data for July at around 8:30 a.m. ET. The figures are thought to serve as an indicator of the strength of the world's largest economy.

The latest weekly jobless claims, industrial production data for July and business inventories for June are among some of the other data releases set to follow slightly later in the session.

The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $55 billion in 4-week bills and $40 billion in 8-week bills on Thursday.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/us-bonds-30-year-treasury-yield-falls-below-2percent-for-first-time-ever.html

2019-08-15 06:41:29Z
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