Selasa, 09 Juli 2019

Deutsche Bank Shares Plunge as Skepticism Mounts Over Revamp - Bloomberg

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Deutsche Bank Shares Plunge as Skepticism Mounts Over Revamp  Bloomberg

Deutsche Bank AG shares declined for a second day after analysts and investors expressed skepticism about the lender's ability to reach profit targets and ...

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-09/deutsche-bank-extends-declines-on-skepticism-over-restructuring

2019-07-09 07:57:00Z
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Dow futures lower ahead as investors await Powell's speech - CNBC

U.S. stock index futures were lower on Tuesday morning, as traders waited to hear from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

At around 03:35 a.m. ET, Dow futures slipped 93 points, indicating a negative open of more than 100 points. Futures on the S&P and Nasdaq were also lower.

Wall Street closed lower on Monday on the back of negative sentiment in the tech sector. However, the big focus this Tuesday is on the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell will give a testimony at 8:45 a.m. ET. This comes just after a stronger-than-expected jobs report raised questions about the central bank's rate policy.

Traders have priced in a 100% probability of a Fed rate cut in July, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. However, expectations for a more aggressive cut were tempered by the jobs data released Friday.

Furthermore, a new NFIB survey will be out at 6 a.m. and a new JOLTS report will be released at 10 a.m. ET.

In the corporate world, PepsiCo and Levi Strauss will update investors on their latest performance.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/09/stock-market-fed-jay-powell-to-give-testimony.html

2019-07-09 07:38:03Z
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Dow futures lower ahead as investors await Powell's speech - CNBC

U.S. stock index futures were lower on Tuesday morning, as traders waited to hear from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

At around 03:35 a.m. ET, Dow futures slipped 93 points, indicating a negative open of more than 100 points. Futures on the S&P and Nasdaq were also lower.

Wall Street closed lower on Monday on the back of negative sentiment in the tech sector. However, the big focus this Tuesday is on the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell will give a testimony at 8:45 a.m. ET. This comes just after a stronger-than-expected jobs report raised questions about the central bank's rate policy.

Traders have priced in a 100% probability of a Fed rate cut in July, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. However, expectations for a more aggressive cut were tempered by the jobs data released Friday.

Furthermore, a new NFIB survey will be out at 6 a.m. and a new JOLTS report will be released at 10 a.m. ET.

In the corporate world, PepsiCo and Levi Strauss will update investors on their latest performance.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/09/stock-market-fed-jay-powell-to-give-testimony.html

2019-07-09 06:59:28Z
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Senin, 08 Juli 2019

Amazon staff will strike during Prime Day over working conditions - Engadget

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While Amazon is busy hyping up this year's Prime Day extravaganza, its workers will be drawing attention to more serious issues than price cuts. Staff at a warehouse in Shakopee, Minnesota will hold six hours of strikes on July 15th (the start of Prime Day) to demand less stringent quotas and the conversion of more temporary workers into permanent employees. The quotas make the work dangerous and unreliable, according to the workers, and permanent work will help create a "livable future." Workers in the US have protested before (including a December protest in Minnesota over support for East African workers), but not during crucial sales days -- you've only really seen that practice in Europe until now.

The company has declined to comment on the strike.

It's not certain how Amazon will respond. Although Amazon isn't likely to face a major disruption due to the sheer number of fulfillment centers in the US, the strike could draw attention to ongoing worries that Amazon is demanding too much from its staff and putting them on a tight leash. The company recently raised its minimum pay to $15 per hour, but that mainly came after pressure from Senator Bernie Sanders and others calling for laws to rein in Amazon and other firms accused of shortchanging workers.

There are also concerns about the potential aftermath of the strike. Amazon workers recently filed complaints with the National Labor Relations Board alleging that the tech giant's staffing vendor, Integrity Staffing Solutions, retaliated against strikers by firing one organizer and deducting strike time from their quarterly leave allowance. Amazon said it hadn't seen the complaints, but they suggest that the strikers are risking punishment if they dare step away.

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https://www.engadget.com/2019/07/08/amazon-warehouse-workers-prime-day-strike/

2019-07-08 16:40:21Z
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Wall Street on Deutsche Bank: Restructuring plan may be too 'radical' and too 'optimistic' - CNBC

A customer pays a taxi-driver near the offices of Deutsche Bank AG in London, U.K., on Monday, July 8, 2019. Deutsche Bank announced a sweeping turnaround plan that will transform Germany's biggest bank, with Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing radically shrinking and reshaping its global operations. Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Big players on the Wall Street have termed Deutsche Bank's major restructuring drive as "very deep," "radical" as well as "challenging."

Deutsche Bank announced Sunday that it will pull out of its global equities sales and trading operations, scale back its investment banking and slash thousands of jobs as part of a sweeping restructuring plan to improve profitability.

Deutsche will cut 18,000 jobs for a global headcount of around 74,000 employees by 2022. The bank aims to reduce adjusted costs by a quarter to 17 billion euros ($19 billion) over the next several years. The shares were down more than 6% in U.S. trading Monday.

While the embattled lender may have gone through a number of strategy overhauls in recent years, its CEO James von Moltke told CNBC Sunday that the bank is determined this new round of restructuring will be its last.

One of the risks that market analysts perceived of Deutsche's restructuring plan was its impact on the larger banking sector. CNBC takes a look at what the analysts from major banks have to say about Deutsche Bank's biggest ever restructuring plan.

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs in a note on Monday called the restructuring as "very deep" but warned of challenges.

"A very deep restructuring, by any measure. Media reporting ahead of Sunday's board meeting was intense, yet the announcements still surprised in terms of their scope and scale, Goldman Sachs noted.

"DBK's structural challenges, as we see them, fall into three categories: the absence of a high-return platform, elevated funding costs, and uncertainty around the scope of its IB business," the note stated.

On the big job cuts and exit from global equities sales, Goldman notes that it is bigger than what was expected.

"Whilst we did expect DBK to substantially scale back its equities operation, we did not expect a wholesale exit across geographies - including in its home market of European / German equities - and business lines."

Citi

Citi, in a research note, termed the restructuring plan as setting "optimistic targets."

"In a well-telegraphed announcement after two weeks of media headlines Deutsche Bank has confirmed a significant restructuring," the note said.

"Restructuring charges of €7.4 billion (c12% of tangible equity) are heavier than anticipated, but spread out over 4 years. Management intends to fund this from existing resources, so there is no capital raise. This may yet prove optimistic."

Citi has set a price target of 6 euros for the German lender and rates it as "high risk" for exposure to a number of outstanding litigation issues.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Bank of America Merrill Lynch called the plan "ambitious" but said a number if questions still remain unanswered.

"This is an ambitious plan for sure, with larger cost cuts and a higher targeted RoTE than expected. Capital elements were largely anticipated by the market, but in our view leave the bank's strategy in the hands of the regulators, BofAML analysts Andrew Stimpson and Alastair Ryan said in a research note Monday.

"Without a reduction in capital requirements or the ECB (European Central Bank) agreeing to allow operational RWA (risk-weighted assets) to reduce faster, then DBK may have little capital to deploy into the higher multiple businesses it wishes to grow," the note added.

J.P. Morgan

JP Morgan termed it as a "bold restructuring" but also said "execution remains key"

"DB restructuring in our view is bold and for the first time not half-baked but a real strategic shift giving up its Tier I IB ambitions. DB is rightsizing to where it came from originally, a corporate bank with the addition of a large Fixed Income footprint."

"We believe further questions need to be answered such as: i) credibility around execution, ii) revenue growth details and rationale, where DB has disappointed in the past, iii) employee motivation post the restructuring to go for regaining market share in Fixed Income and around DB's ability to operate a corporate franchise without a European equity business."

J.P. Morgan in its note further stated that there are a number of upside and downside risks. These could include global economy undergoing a slowdown with a corresponding deterioration in credit quality and weaker revenues, which could affect DB's profitability. Execution risk on the latest strategy announced could pose as both upside and downside headwind, according to JPM.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley in its research note stated that the new targets set by Deutsche Bank seem "ambitious at first take."

"Investment bank is being materially scaled back. Despite the size of RWAs cut, it is self funded with target CET1 (common equity Tier 1) ratio at 12.5%. Execution details will be key to potential re-rating," Morgan Stanley said in a note.

"In fixed income, DBK also aims to scale back significantly (in Rates in particular), reducing RWAs allocated to this business by 40%. Overall we think the strategic announcement could lead to a short-term bounce for the stock on no dilution, yet any potential re-rating will depend on details on execution," the note added.

Morgan Stanley added that even though Deutsche Bank's overhaul plan has been discussed at length with the bank's home regulator Bafin, they expect Europe's Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) — the European institution that oversees banks in the euro zone — to be informed as well as be content with the CET1 minimum target.

Deutsche Bank has reduced the CET1 target to >12.5% from >13.0% in its latest plan.

Barclays

Barclays' analysts have warned they expect Deutsche Bank shares to be volatile on the back of the latest restructuring plan.

"The reduction in the CET1 ratio target had been suggested in press articles last week - e.g. FT, Bloomberg - and so is not a surprise. Nevertheless it will be important to see the capital trajectory that management are assuming in the coming periods, and the conviction/assumptions surrounding that," Barclays said in the note on Monday.

Barclays' further adds that investors will be keeping an eye on how this plan is executed.

"It will also be important to see how management will execute on the cost reduction, given its scope, and whether this can be done without revenue consequences. Further it will also be interesting to hear how all the planned investments in IT and controls will be paid for."

RBC Capital Markets

RBC termed the restructuring "more radical than expected" and will support the share price in the short-term. RBC also increased its price target on Deutsche Bank.

"We raise our PT (price target) from EUR7.5 to EUR8ps. However, as the plan pushes the profitability improvement further out in time on our estimates, we see more value elsewhere in the sector. Maintaining Underperform, Speculative Risk."

RBC also stated that Deutsche Bank's announcement is a "material transformation plan" and if the set ROTE 2022 target of 8% is delivered then there could be significant upside in the shares.

"We believe the near-term profitability will remain low; in fact, on our estimates the transformation leads to a deterioration. We expect peers to be better placed to weather any deterioration in the macro political environment and to benefit from business lost at DBK. The transformation plan will also lower DBK's CET ratio and there is a risk that it might have to raise capital."

UBS

UBS, in a note on Monday, said Deutsche Bank's new plan shows the willingness and determination to change the profile of the bank.

"The new strategy in our view aims at breaking through the self-feeding debt/equity circle which we have often discussed in our research and to make Deutsche less of a levered market play vulnerable to external events," UBS said in its note Monday.

UBS further states that short-term market reaction could be positive. "Progress over the coming quarters could then further increase the market confidence in the plan. That said, overall market conditions and restructuring uncertainties could materially impact revenues. Some key questions remain: What about frictions and (negative) side-effects? Execution uncertainties?"

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/08/wall-street-analysts-say-deutsche-banks-restructuring-may-be-too-optimistic.html

2019-07-08 14:24:21Z
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Wall Street on Deutsche Bank: Restructuring plan may be too 'radical' and too 'optimistic' - CNBC

A customer pays a taxi-driver near the offices of Deutsche Bank AG in London, U.K., on Monday, July 8, 2019. Deutsche Bank announced a sweeping turnaround plan that will transform Germany's biggest bank, with Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing radically shrinking and reshaping its global operations. Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Big players on the Wall Street have termed Deutsche Bank's major restructuring drive as "very deep," "radical" as well as "challenging."

Deutsche Bank announced Sunday that it will pull out of its global equities sales and trading operations, scale back its investment banking and slash thousands of jobs as part of a sweeping restructuring plan to improve profitability.

Deutsche will cut 18,000 jobs for a global headcount of around 74,000 employees by 2022. The bank aims to reduce adjusted costs by a quarter to 17 billion euros ($19 billion) over the next several years. The shares were down more than 6% in U.S. trading Monday.

While the embattled lender may have gone through a number of strategy overhauls in recent years, its CEO James von Moltke told CNBC Sunday that the bank is determined this new round of restructuring will be its last.

One of the risks that market analysts perceived of Deutsche's restructuring plan was its impact on the larger banking sector. CNBC takes a look at what the analysts from major banks have to say about Deutsche Bank's biggest ever restructuring plan.

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs in a note on Monday called the restructuring as "very deep" but warned of challenges.

"A very deep restructuring, by any measure. Media reporting ahead of Sunday's board meeting was intense, yet the announcements still surprised in terms of their scope and scale, Goldman Sachs noted.

"DBK's structural challenges, as we see them, fall into three categories: the absence of a high-return platform, elevated funding costs, and uncertainty around the scope of its IB business," the note stated.

On the big job cuts and exit from global equities sales, Goldman notes that it is bigger than what was expected.

"Whilst we did expect DBK to substantially scale back its equities operation, we did not expect a wholesale exit across geographies - including in its home market of European / German equities - and business lines."

Citi

Citi, in a research note, termed the restructuring plan as setting "optimistic targets."

"In a well-telegraphed announcement after two weeks of media headlines Deutsche Bank has confirmed a significant restructuring," the note said.

"Restructuring charges of €7.4 billion (c12% of tangible equity) are heavier than anticipated, but spread out over 4 years. Management intends to fund this from existing resources, so there is no capital raise. This may yet prove optimistic."

Citi has set a price target of 6 euros for the German lender and rates it as "high risk" for exposure to a number of outstanding litigation issues.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Bank of America Merrill Lynch called the plan "ambitious" but said a number if questions still remain unanswered.

"This is an ambitious plan for sure, with larger cost cuts and a higher targeted RoTE than expected. Capital elements were largely anticipated by the market, but in our view leave the bank's strategy in the hands of the regulators, BofAML analysts Andrew Stimpson and Alastair Ryan said in a research note Monday.

"Without a reduction in capital requirements or the ECB (European Central Bank) agreeing to allow operational RWA (risk-weighted assets) to reduce faster, then DBK may have little capital to deploy into the higher multiple businesses it wishes to grow," the note added.

J.P. Morgan

JP Morgan termed it as a "bold restructuring" but also said "execution remains key"

"DB restructuring in our view is bold and for the first time not half-baked but a real strategic shift giving up its Tier I IB ambitions. DB is rightsizing to where it came from originally, a corporate bank with the addition of a large Fixed Income footprint."

"We believe further questions need to be answered such as: i) credibility around execution, ii) revenue growth details and rationale, where DB has disappointed in the past, iii) employee motivation post the restructuring to go for regaining market share in Fixed Income and around DB's ability to operate a corporate franchise without a European equity business."

J.P. Morgan in its note further stated that there are a number of upside and downside risks. These could include global economy undergoing a slowdown with a corresponding deterioration in credit quality and weaker revenues, which could affect DB's profitability. Execution risk on the latest strategy announced could pose as both upside and downside headwind, according to JPM.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley in its research note stated that the new targets set by Deutsche Bank seem "ambitious at first take."

"Investment bank is being materially scaled back. Despite the size of RWAs cut, it is self funded with target CET1 (common equity Tier 1) ratio at 12.5%. Execution details will be key to potential re-rating," Morgan Stanley said in a note.

"In fixed income, DBK also aims to scale back significantly (in Rates in particular), reducing RWAs allocated to this business by 40%. Overall we think the strategic announcement could lead to a short-term bounce for the stock on no dilution, yet any potential re-rating will depend on details on execution," the note added.

Morgan Stanley added that even though Deutsche Bank's overhaul plan has been discussed at length with the bank's home regulator Bafin, they expect Europe's Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) — the European institution that oversees banks in the euro zone — to be informed as well as be content with the CET1 minimum target.

Deutsche Bank has reduced the CET1 target to >12.5% from >13.0% in its latest plan.

Barclays

Barclays' analysts have warned they expect Deutsche Bank shares to be volatile on the back of the latest restructuring plan.

"The reduction in the CET1 ratio target had been suggested in press articles last week - e.g. FT, Bloomberg - and so is not a surprise. Nevertheless it will be important to see the capital trajectory that management are assuming in the coming periods, and the conviction/assumptions surrounding that," Barclays said in the note on Monday.

Barclays' further adds that investors will be keeping an eye on how this plan is executed.

"It will also be important to see how management will execute on the cost reduction, given its scope, and whether this can be done without revenue consequences. Further it will also be interesting to hear how all the planned investments in IT and controls will be paid for."

RBC Capital Markets

RBC termed the restructuring "more radical than expected" and will support the share price in the short-term. RBC also increased its price target on Deutsche Bank.

"We raise our PT (price target) from EUR7.5 to EUR8ps. However, as the plan pushes the profitability improvement further out in time on our estimates, we see more value elsewhere in the sector. Maintaining Underperform, Speculative Risk."

RBC also stated that Deutsche Bank's announcement is a "material transformation plan" and if the set ROTE 2022 target of 8% is delivered then there could be significant upside in the shares.

"We believe the near-term profitability will remain low; in fact, on our estimates the transformation leads to a deterioration. We expect peers to be better placed to weather any deterioration in the macro political environment and to benefit from business lost at DBK. The transformation plan will also lower DBK's CET ratio and there is a risk that it might have to raise capital."

UBS

UBS, in a note on Monday, said Deutsche Bank's new plan shows the willingness and determination to change the profile of the bank.

"The new strategy in our view aims at breaking through the self-feeding debt/equity circle which we have often discussed in our research and to make Deutsche less of a levered market play vulnerable to external events," UBS said in its note Monday.

UBS further states that short-term market reaction could be positive. "Progress over the coming quarters could then further increase the market confidence in the plan. That said, overall market conditions and restructuring uncertainties could materially impact revenues. Some key questions remain: What about frictions and (negative) side-effects? Execution uncertainties?"

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/08/wall-street-analysts-say-deutsche-banks-restructuring-may-be-too-optimistic.html

2019-07-08 14:24:16Z
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Amazon workers in Minnesota plan Prime Day strike despite $15-an-hour pledge - INFORUM

Workers at a Shakopee, Minnesota, fulfillment center plan a six-hour work stoppage July 15, the first day of Prime Day. Amazon started the event five years ago, using deep discounts on televisions, toys and clothes to attract and retain Prime members, who pay subscription fees in exchange for free shipping and other perks.

"Amazon is going to be telling one story about itself, which is they can ship a Kindle to your house in one day, isn't that wonderful," said William Stolz, one of the Shakopee employees organizing the strike. "We want to take the opportunity to talk about what it takes to make that work happen and put pressure on Amazon to protect us and provide safe, reliable jobs."

Amazon, through a spokeswoman, declined to comment on the planned strike.

In Europe, where unions are stronger, Amazon workers routinely strike during big shopping events like Prime Day and Black Friday. Until now, Amazon's U.S. workers haven't walked off the job during key sales days. About 250 union pilots who haul packages for Amazon and DHL Worldwide Express staged a brief strike in the leadup to Thanksgiving in 2016 before a federal judge ordered them back to work, eliminating any disruptions during the peak holiday shopping season.

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As one of the world's most valuable companies -- led by Jeff Bezos, the world's wealthiest person -- Amazon has become a symbol of income inequality. Critics say it benefits from tax breaks to build warehouses but pays workers so little that some are forced to seek government assistance for basic needs like food and health care. The pledge to pay $15 an hour didn't happen until the company had weathered attacks from politicians such as presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders, who proposed a "Stop BEZOS" act that would have imposed a tax on companies like Amazon to make up for the cost of government benefits like Medicaid for their employees.

Of late, warehouses in Minnesota's Twin Cities region have become an epicenter of worker activism, led by East African Muslim immigrants who organizers say compose the majority of the five facilities' staff. Last year workers thronged the entryway of a delivery center chanting "Yes we can" in Somali and English, presenting management with demands such as reduced workloads while fasting for Ramadan. They also circulated flyers at a nearby fulfillment center urging co-workers to wear blue shirts and hijabs in support of the same cause.

Organizers say the actions led to talks between employees and management last fall and spurred some modest changes. These include relaxing pressure on workers to meet quotas during Ramadan and the designation of a conference room as a prayer space.

But they say the company has failed to meet worker demands such as converting more temps to Amazon employees and permanently easing productivity quotas they allege make the jobs unsafe and insecure. In a letter last year to the National Labor Relations Board that was reported by The Verge, an attorney for Amazon said that hundreds of employees at one Baltimore facility were terminated within about a year for failing to meet productivity rates. In March, workers staged a three-hour strike.

On July 15, employees at the Shakopee facility plan to strike about three hours at the end of the day shift and for about three hours at the start of the night shift. In the afternoon, workers also plan to rally outside the facility, located about 25 miles from Minneapolis.

In an effort to show solidarity, a handful of Amazon's white collar-engineers intend to fly to Minnesota to join the demonstration, where activists will demand the company take action against climate change as well as easing quotas and making more temps permanent employees. "We're both fighting for a livable future," said Seattle software engineer Weston Fribley, one of several employees from the group Amazon Employees For Climate Justice who will be making the trip.

It's the latest example of tech employees with very different jobs trying to forge common cause in the hopes their bosses find their demands harder to ignore.

"We see that our fights are stronger together," said Abdirahman Muse, executive director of the Awood Center, the worker advocacy group spearheading the Minnesota activism, whose backers include the Service Employees International Union, the Teamsters, and the Minnesota chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations. Muse said he expects more than 100 workers to strike.

Workers are also pressing their case to the federal government, claiming their activism earlier this year was illegally punished. Workers filed a pair of complaints last week with the National Labor Relations Board. The first, filed against Amazon's staffing vendor Integrity Staffing Solutions, alleges that it illegally retaliated against a worker who organizers say had been mobilizing co-workers for the March strike and was terminated as he was about to walk off the job to participate.

The second complaint, filed against Amazon itself, claims the company retaliated against other workers who went on strike in March by deducting hours from their unpaid time off allotment. The hours they spent striking were counted against the 20 total hours workers can miss each quarter without being fired, according to organizers. Such actions could chill workplace activism and run afoul of federal law, even if they didn't lead to any actual terminations, said Seattle University law professor Charlotte Garden.

"It's a violation of labor law when an employer punishes workers for striking, and one way of punishing workers for striking is to take some of their leave away," she said.

The labor relations board has received about 50 complaints about Amazon, most of which have been withdrawn or dismissed. The Shakopee worker complaint stands out since it alleges collective mistreatment of more than a dozen staff.

The Amazon spokeswoman said that company had yet to see the complaint about alleged unfair labor practices.

Logistically, the strike will probably amount to little more than a hiccup to Amazon because other facilities and people can easily pick up any slack. Still, the action shows that Amazon workers, buoyed by a tight labor market and employee activism elsewhere, have been emboldened to demand better treatment. Nor will the political pressure go away. Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, another leading presidential candidate, have both called Amazon out over allegations it interfered with Whole Foods workers' right to organize.

This article was written by Josh Eidelson and Spencer Soper, reporters for Bloomberg.

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https://www.inforum.com/business/technology/3826425-Amazon-workers-in-Minnesota-plan-Prime-Day-strike-despite-15-an-hour-pledge

2019-07-08 14:00:00Z
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